Question 1

How does Probaball work out who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Accepted Answer

Probaball is a data-science simulation (Monte Carlo) that plays the entire 2026 World Cup out tens of thousands of times. Each team's strength is a weighted blend of three independent sources — team ratings (Elo, computed from ~50,000 internationals), bookmaker odds, and 30+ experts' tips from many countries — and matches are decided by a Dixon-Coles goal model in the official knockout bracket. The share of simulations a team wins is its probability.

Question 2

What are Probaball's odds based on?

Accepted Answer

Three sources are weighted together (40% rankings, 40% bookmakers, 20% experts): team ratings led by Elo (the FIFA ranking turned out to add nothing extra in our tests), de-vigged title odds from bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Kalshi, Betfair and William Hill, and predictions from 30+ experts and statistical models from many countries.

Question 3

How advanced is the Probaball model, and how accurate?

Accepted Answer

Probaball blends many independent signals into one forecast — much like averaging many polls (a poll of polls). It builds on an Elo rating from ~50,000 internationals, market odds, expert models, a Dixon-Coles goal model and the official knockout bracket. Every improvement is tested against historical results (out-of-sample, with the Ranked Probability Score), and anything that doesn't make the forecast better is dropped — for example, neither the FIFA ranking nor an attack/defence model added anything. But these are probabilities, not certainties: football is highly random, and even a clear favourite usually sits under 20% to win the whole tournament.

Question 4

Can I run my own simulation?

Accepted Answer

Yes. You can adjust the model's parameters and force the outcome of individual matches, then re-run the data-science simulation to see how the probabilities change.

Question 5

Is Probaball affiliated with FIFA?

Accepted Answer

No. Probaball is an independent data-science project and is not affiliated with or endorsed by FIFA.

Grupo L – Copa do Mundo 2026