Argentina – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Argentina has a 9.7% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 17.9% to reach the final, 31.2% to the semi-finals and 63.5% to the round of 16. Argentina plays in group J.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Argentina sits #3 of the 48 teams in the tournament.