Probaball – Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

Probaball has simulated the entire 2026 World Cup 50,000 times, based on a blend of team rankings (Elo), leading bookmakers and 18 experts. Below is each team's probability of becoming world champion (data as of 2026-06-01).

World champion 2026 – probabilities

  1. Spain (group H) – 16.9% to win the World Cup.
  2. France (group I) – 16.2% to win the World Cup.
  3. England (group L) – 14.6% to win the World Cup.
  4. Argentina (group J) – 9.7% to win the World Cup.
  5. Brazil (group C) – 6.0% to win the World Cup.
  6. Portugal (group K) – 5.4% to win the World Cup.
  7. Netherlands (group F) – 4.0% to win the World Cup.
  8. Colombia (group K) – 3.7% to win the World Cup.
  9. Germany (group E) – 3.6% to win the World Cup.
  10. Norway (group I) – 2.3% to win the World Cup.
  11. Belgium (group G) – 2.1% to win the World Cup.
  12. Mexico (group A) – 2.0% to win the World Cup.
  13. Japan (group F) – 1.9% to win the World Cup.
  14. Morocco (group C) – 1.9% to win the World Cup.
  15. Uruguay (group H) – 1.5% to win the World Cup.
  16. Switzerland (group B) – 1.5% to win the World Cup.
  17. USA (group D) – 1.3% to win the World Cup.
  18. Croatia (group L) – 1.3% to win the World Cup.
  19. Ecuador (group E) – 0.8% to win the World Cup.
  20. Turkey (group D) – 0.7% to win the World Cup.
  21. Canada (group B) – 0.6% to win the World Cup.
  22. Senegal (group I) – 0.4% to win the World Cup.
  23. Paraguay (group D) – 0.3% to win the World Cup.
  24. Austria (group J) – 0.2% to win the World Cup.

Teams

Algeria · Argentina · Australia · Austria · Belgium · Bosnia · Brazil · Canada · Cape Verde · Colombia · Croatia · Curacao · Czechia · DR Congo · Ecuador · Egypt · England · France · Germany · Ghana · Haiti · Iran · Iraq · Ivory Coast · Japan · Jordan · Mexico · Morocco · Netherlands · New Zealand · Norway · Panama · Paraguay · Portugal · Qatar · Saudi Arabia · Scotland · Senegal · South Africa · South Korea · Spain · Sweden · Switzerland · Tunisia · Turkey · USA · Uruguay · Uzbekistan

Groups

Group A · Group B · Group C · Group D · Group E · Group F · Group G · Group H · Group I · Group J · Group K · Group L

How Probaball calculates

Probaball combines several independent signals into one forecast – much like averaging many polls (a poll of polls). Each team's strength is a weighted blend (40% rankings, 40% bookmakers, 20% experts): an Elo rating computed from ~50,000 internationals, de-vigged title odds from BetMGM, Betfair, DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi, William Hill, bet365 and predictions from 18 experts. Matches are decided with a Dixon-Coles goal model in the official knockout bracket, and the whole tournament is played out 50,000 times.

Every model improvement is tested against historical results (out-of-sample, Ranked Probability Score); anything that doesn't predict better is dropped (e.g. neither the FIFA ranking nor an attack/defence model added anything). These are probabilities, not certainties. Probaball is not affiliated with or endorsed by FIFA.