Belgium – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Belgium has a 2.1% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 5.3% to reach the final, 12.9% to the semi-finals and 59.3% to the round of 16. Belgium plays in group G.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Belgium sits #9 of the 48 teams in the tournament.