Portugal – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Portugal has a 5.4% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 11.4% to reach the final, 23.4% to the semi-finals and 68.5% to the round of 16. Portugal plays in group K.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Portugal sits #5 of the 48 teams in the tournament.