Austria – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Austria has a 0.2% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 1.0% to reach the final, 3.3% to the semi-finals and 22.7% to the round of 16. Austria plays in group J.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Austria sits #21 of the 48 teams in the tournament.