Norway – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Norway has a 2.3% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 5.7% to reach the final, 12.6% to the semi-finals and 52.2% to the round of 16. Norway plays in group I.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Norway sits #28 of the 48 teams in the tournament.