Ecuador – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Ecuador has a 0.8% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 2.6% to reach the final, 6.8% to the semi-finals and 41.8% to the round of 16. Ecuador plays in group E.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Ecuador sits #20 of the 48 teams in the tournament.