Japan – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Japan has a 1.9% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 4.9% to reach the final, 11.0% to the semi-finals and 43.7% to the round of 16. Japan plays in group F.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Japan sits #17 of the 48 teams in the tournament.