France – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), France has a 16.2% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 25.6% to reach the final, 39.9% to the semi-finals and 79.3% to the round of 16. France plays in group I.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking France sits #1 of the 48 teams in the tournament.