Canada – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Canada has a 0.6% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 2.0% to reach the final, 6.3% to the semi-finals and 49.6% to the round of 16. Canada plays in group B.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Canada sits #27 of the 48 teams in the tournament.