Senegal – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Senegal has a 0.4% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 1.3% to reach the final, 4.0% to the semi-finals and 30.7% to the round of 16. Senegal plays in group I.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Senegal sits #13 of the 48 teams in the tournament.