Uruguay – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Uruguay has a 1.5% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 4.5% to reach the final, 11.2% to the semi-finals and 41.9% to the round of 16. Uruguay plays in group H.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Uruguay sits #16 of the 48 teams in the tournament.