Brazil – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Brazil has a 6.0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 11.7% to reach the final, 21.3% to the semi-finals and 61.4% to the round of 16. Brazil plays in group C.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Brazil sits #6 of the 48 teams in the tournament.