Germany – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Germany has a 3.6% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 8.0% to reach the final, 16.0% to the semi-finals and 60.1% to the round of 16. Germany plays in group E.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Germany sits #10 of the 48 teams in the tournament.