USA – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), USA has a 1.3% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 3.7% to reach the final, 9.8% to the semi-finals and 51.6% to the round of 16. USA plays in group D.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking USA sits #15 of the 48 teams in the tournament.