Australia – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Australia has a 0.1% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 0.4% to reach the final, 1.6% to the semi-finals and 20.3% to the round of 16. Australia plays in group D.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Australia sits #23 of the 48 teams in the tournament.