New Zealand – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), New Zealand has a 0.0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 0.0% to reach the final, 0.2% to the semi-finals and 7.3% to the round of 16. New Zealand plays in group G.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking New Zealand sits #48 of the 48 teams in the tournament.