Colombia – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Colombia has a 3.7% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 8.5% to reach the final, 18.5% to the semi-finals and 62.2% to the round of 16. Colombia plays in group K.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Colombia sits #12 of the 48 teams in the tournament.