Netherlands – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Netherlands has a 4.0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 8.6% to reach the final, 16.9% to the semi-finals and 53.2% to the round of 16. Netherlands plays in group F.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Netherlands sits #7 of the 48 teams in the tournament.