Turkey – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Turkey has a 0.7% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 2.2% to reach the final, 6.7% to the semi-finals and 41.9% to the round of 16. Turkey plays in group D.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Turkey sits #24 of the 48 teams in the tournament.