Iraq – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Iraq has a 0.0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 0.0% to reach the final, 0.1% to the semi-finals and 2.8% to the round of 16. Iraq plays in group I.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Iraq sits #39 of the 48 teams in the tournament.