England – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), England has a 14.6% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 24.5% to reach the final, 38.2% to the semi-finals and 79.2% to the round of 16. England plays in group L.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking England sits #4 of the 48 teams in the tournament.