Qatar – chance to win the 2026 World Cup
According to Probaball's data-science simulation (50,000 simulations, data as of 2026-06-01), Qatar has a 0.0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup, 0.0% to reach the final, 0.1% to the semi-finals and 6.6% to the round of 16. Qatar plays in group B.
The team's strength weights team rankings (Elo), bookmaker odds and expert predictions (40/40/20). In the FIFA ranking Qatar sits #38 of the 48 teams in the tournament.