How accurate is the 2026 World Cup forecast?
Probaball scores its pre-match predictions against the actual results using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS) — the standard scientific metric for football forecasts (Constantinou & Fenton, 2012). After 72 group games the average RPS is 0.1513 (lower is better; published league models score about 0.19–0.22). The model's most likely outcome has come in 44 of 72 games, with 15 upsets so far.