2026 World Cup Predictions: Who Will Win?

Updated daily · forecast 2026-07-16 · 102 of 104 matches played

Probaball has simulated the entire 2026 World Cup 50,000 times, based on a blend of team rankings (Elo), leading bookmakers and 31 experts. Below is each team's probability of becoming world champion (data as of 2026-07-16).

World champion 2026 – probabilities

  1. Spain (group H) – 56.8% to win the World Cup.
  2. Argentina (group J) – 43.2% to win the World Cup.
  3. France (group I) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  4. England (group L) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  5. Brazil (group C) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  6. Portugal (group K) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  7. Netherlands (group F) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  8. Colombia (group K) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  9. Germany (group E) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  10. Norway (group I) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  11. Belgium (group G) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  12. Morocco (group C) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  13. Mexico (group A) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  14. Switzerland (group B) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  15. Japan (group F) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  16. Uruguay (group H) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  17. Ecuador (group E) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  18. Croatia (group L) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  19. USA (group D) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  20. Turkey (group D) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  21. Senegal (group I) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  22. Austria (group J) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  23. Sweden (group F) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.
  24. Canada (group B) – 0.0% to win the World Cup.

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World Cup match predictions

A model win probability for every game, updated after each result.

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Teams

Algeria · Argentina · Australia · Austria · Belgium · Bosnia · Brazil · Canada · Cape Verde · Colombia · Croatia · Curaçao · Czechia · DR Congo · Ecuador · Egypt · England · France · Germany · Ghana · Haiti · Iran · Iraq · Ivory Coast · Japan · Jordan · Mexico · Morocco · Netherlands · New Zealand · Norway · Panama · Paraguay · Portugal · Qatar · Saudi Arabia · Scotland · Senegal · South Africa · South Korea · Spain · Sweden · Switzerland · Tunisia · Turkey · USA · Uruguay · Uzbekistan

Groups

Group A · Group B · Group C · Group D · Group E · Group F · Group G · Group H · Group I · Group J · Group K · Group L

How Probaball calculates

Probaball combines several independent signals into one forecast – much like averaging many polls (a poll of polls). Each team's strength is a weighted blend (47.5% rankings, 47.5% bookmakers, 5% experts): an Elo rating computed from ~50,000 internationals (World Football Elo, eloratings.net), de-vigged title odds from Betfair, DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi, William Hill (market odds are among the most accurate outcome forecasts; Forrest, Goddard & Simmons, 2005) and predictions from 31 experts. Matches are decided with a Dixon-Coles goal model in the official knockout bracket, and the whole tournament is played out 50,000 times.

Every model improvement is tested against historical results (out-of-sample, Ranked Probability Score; Constantinou & Fenton, 2012); anything that doesn't predict better is dropped (e.g. neither the FIFA ranking nor an attack/defence model added anything). These are probabilities, not certainties. Probaball is not affiliated with or endorsed by FIFA.